How
could this administration allow the spectacular military raid that
killed Osama bin Laden to be
marginalized by a massive
security breach (immediate disclosure of all information about
this raid to the world) that served only to enhance the poll
numbers of a president responsible for our national security? By
spilling his guts to the world Obama grasped defeat from the jaws
of victory!
Obama could have gotten all the glory he wanted if he just could
have given the military and intelligence community only a few more
days to exploit the "mother Lode" of information we
gained during this raid before he had to brag to the world about
his heroic deeds!
The more I hear about the Obama bin Laden raid the more concerned
I become about the motives and the competence of this
administration. Let me tell you why!
The first thing
we should be concerned about with this massive out flowing of
information about the raid is our lost opportunity to dramatically
disrupt the al-Qaeda
organization. For
the head of a terrorist organization using only couriers to
communicate with others it seems axiomatic that this is what we
should have expected. The three types of information we got most
probably include:
#1 - The locations of Osama bin Laden's immediate subordinates
(the people most likely in line to take over as the leaders of al-Qaida
upon the death of Osama bin Laden). Couriers had to have this
information.
#2 - Planning information on future operations (details about all
major terrorist attacks planned for the foreseeable future).
#3 - Misc. matters necessary for al-Qaeda
to function (financing, communications, continuity of operation
plans, organizational structures, strength, recruiting, training
and standard operating procedures).
Common sense also tells us several other things that anyone could
predict before the operation took place:
#1- If we said absolutely nothing after the raid, no one in al-Qaeda
would know what happened. No one in al-Qaida, except the couriers,
apparently knew where Osama bin Laden lived. The Pakistan
government, or any individuals who happened to know, could not
admit they knew he lived there...at least in the media. If they
protested the incursion and the downed helicopter we could
apologize for a failed operation or whatever. If anyone knew Osama
bin Laden lived there they wouldn't know whether he got away or
anything at all. Unless we spilled our guts, as we have done about
the operation.
#2 - We would have a short period of time to exploit the
"mother lode" of information we had just seized. The
courier setup Osama bin Laden used would not work as the couriers
were dead. It would take some time for al-Qaida members to find
out what happened. When they heard anything they would not know
much for some time and there would be a lot of doubt and confusion
throughout the organization. If and when they did learn something
definitive there would be a mass flurry of communication and our
electronic surveillance apparatus would get some great information
and leads. A lot of good things would happen. In contrast, a lot
of bad things will happen because we have laid everything out in
great detail in the media that is going to every al-Qaida member
in real time!
#3 - We could dramatically disrupt the entire al-Qaeda
organization in a number of very substantive ways in a very short
time. We could do many things in a very short time to exploit a
lot of this information before anyone in al-Qaeda
could react, such as take out all the likely leaders to succeed
Osama bin Laden, seize al-Qaida funds around the world, disrupt or
kill people in cells on the verge of committing terrorist attacks,
etc. They wouldn't know what happened until it was all over!
I cannot imagine any of NSC/SOCOM/CIA
leaders not recommending to the president to keep his mouth shut
for at least a month to allow time to see
what info we had and see what we could do before all the al-Qaeda
personnel relocated, transferred all the money out of existing
accounts, etc. If our military and intelligence leaders didn't
make such recommendations they should be fired.
The country should be outraged at Obama throwing our country under
the bus for a little good press and about a 9% immediate gain in
the polls! Besides, he could have gotten even better press if he
was smart enough to have held up this information for about two
months and then been able to tell the world:
#1 - Osama Bin Laden was killed in a spectacular military raid
and,
#2 - We have killed the five most likely terrorists in the line of
succession to take over al-Qaeda
and,
#3 - 80% of al-Qaeda
financial assets have been seized and,
#4 - We have disrupted four major future terrorist attacks against
ourselves and our allies in our war against terrorism and, etc.,
etc.!
The second thing
we should be concerned about with this massive outflowing of
information about the raid is the dramatic increase in al-Qaeda's
operational capabilities to avoid our future intelligence
gathering capabilities.
Every day more of the details are put out about how we got the
information that led to the death of Osama bin Laden. We are also
telling them exactly where, when and how they screwed up or had a
lapse in security that let us break the case.
All this information is a wonderful guide to them on what they
need to change to eliminate detection. If we think it was hard to
track down their leaders before, wait until we try it the next
time. Let us look at what happened the last time a president
wanted to raise his poll numbers a bit. One of the reasons we had
such a hard time finding Osama bin Laden this time and a major
reason we got surprised on 9-11 was because President Clinton
disclosed that we were monitoring Osama bin Laden's satellite cell
phone about the time of the Monica saga. After that small
disclosure Osama bin Laden stopped using his satellite phone and
all electronic devices. He then went to the courier system and
allowed few if anyone (except a trusted courier) even to know his
location. After that almost all information from him completely
dried up. If this disclosure of highly classified information had
not happened we might have known about 9-11 in advance, the twin
towers might be standing and 3,000 lives might not have been lost,
not to even mention the cost of the wars that followed. As they
said during WW-II, “Loose lips sink ships!”
The Bottom Line:
Because Obama couldn't wait for a very short time to see his poll
numbers go up and brag about a military success at a later time:
#1 - Al-Qaeda
gained valuable information that will provide them time to modify
compromised operational plans and reposition leaders and assets.
#2 - The US was prevented from scoring as decisive and extremely
damaging a blow against al-Qaeda
as would otherwise been possible without this security breach.
#3 - Al-Qaida was provided valuable information about their
operational security failures.
#4 - All of the above will most assuredly enhance terrorist
operations against us in the future at the cost of many American
lives.
It is sickening to me to see Obama basking in success when he
apparently has been an impediment rather than an asset to the
country. He has ripped the possibility of one of the most
successful military operations we have had in recent times from
the jaws of victory and greatly diminished the brilliant efforts
of our outstanding military force!